Banking and Finance in Bangladesh: A Dualistic Analysis of Investor Yields and Entrepreneurial Capital (2024–2025)

1. The Macro-Financial Environment: Structural Fragility and Policy Transitions

The financial landscape of Bangladesh in the fiscal years 2024 and 2025 is defined by a profound dichotomy: a burgeoning, yield-rich environment for the passive investor contrasting sharply with an increasingly hostile, liquidity-starved ecosystem for the active entrepreneur. This divergence is not merely a cyclical fluctuation but the result of deep-seated structural shifts, a volatile political transition, and a recalibration of the nation’s macroeconomic fundamentals. To understand the banking and finance sector in 2025 requires a granular examination of the interplay between GDP deceleration, persistent inflationary pressures, and the stabilization efforts of a transitional government.

1.1 Economic Growth Trajectory and Forecasts

The resilience of the Bangladeshi economy, historically characterized by robust growth exceeding 6-7%, has faced significant headwinds during this period. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have both revised their growth projections downward, reflecting a cooling economy grappling with internal and external shocks. For FY2025, GDP growth is forecast at approximately 4.0%, with a moderate recovery to 5.0% expected in 2026.¹ This deceleration is attributed to a confluence of factors: production disruptions stemming from the political uprisings of mid-2024, a contractionary monetary policy designed to curb inflation, and a general dampening of domestic demand.²

The World Bank’s assessment highlights a critical nuance in this growth story: while Bangladesh has successfully lifted over 34 million people out of poverty since 2010, the current growth phase is marked by rising inequality and vulnerability. Slower growth, combined with high inflation, threatens to reverse some of these development gains, leaving nearly one-third of the population economically vulnerable.³ For the entrepreneur, this macroeconomic cooling translates into weaker consumer spending power and a more cautious business environment, while for the investor, it signals a shift in strategy towards defensive assets and fixed-income securities rather than growth equities.

1.2 The Inflationary Spiral and Monetary Response

Inflation remains the central antagonist in the economic narrative of 2025. Despite aggressive monetary tightening, headline inflation has proven sticky. Forecasts indicate an inflation rate hovering around 10.0% for 2025, with a gradual moderation to 8.0% projected for 2026.¹ The IMF notes that while inflation has retreated from double-digit peaks seen in early FY2025, it remained elevated at 8.2% as of late 2025, driven by supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation.²

The central bank’s response has been to tighten money supply and raise policy rates, a move that has inevitably increased the cost of capital across the board. This policy stance aims to anchor inflation expectations but has simultaneously squeezed private sector liquidity. For investors, particularly those in the bond market, this high-inflation, high-interest-rate environment offers attractive nominal yields. However, for the industrial sector, it acts as a severe brake on expansion, as the cost of borrowing often exceeds the internal rate of return (IRR) on new projects.

Institution	FY2025 GDP Forecast	FY2026 GDP Forecast	FY2025 Inflation Forecast	FY2026 Inflation Forecast
Asian Development Bank (ADB)	4.0%	5.0%	10.0%	8.0%
International Monetary Fund (IMF)	3.7% – 4.0%	–	8.2% (Oct 2025)	–
World Bank	Moderate Growth	–	Elevated	–

1.3 Political Economy and Audit-Driven Transparency

The political landscape underwent a seismic shift with the fall of the previous administration in August 2024. The subsequent installation of an interim government initiated a period of rigorous auditing and financial transparency that laid bare the extent of legacy mismanagement in the banking sector. The new administration’s focus on exposing “hidden” non-performing loans (NPLs) and correcting inflated economic data has been painful but necessary.⁴ This transition has temporarily paralyzed decision-making in parts of the bureaucracy and banking sector, as officials fear scrutiny, leading to delays in loan approvals and project implementation.⁵ However, it also promises a medium-term restoration of governance standards that is essential for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).

2. The Banking Sector Crisis: Liquidity, Solvency, and Reform

The banking sector serves as the primary conduit for capital in Bangladesh, yet in 2025, this conduit is severely clogged. The sector is navigating a “polycrisis” involving a massive accumulation of bad assets, a systemic liquidity crunch, and a crisis of confidence that has triggered deposit flight from weaker institutions.

2.1 The Explosion of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)

The most alarming development in the banking sector is the exponential rise in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs). For years, official data painted a manageable picture of NPLs hovering around 9-10%. However, the rigorous audits conducted in late 2024 and throughout 2025 have revealed the true depth of the rot. By December 2024, NPLs in the banking sector had reportedly surpassed BDT 5 trillion.⁴ Sources within the central bank and independent audit firms now estimate that the true default rate could exceed 30% of total outstanding loans, a figure that technically renders a significant portion of the banking system insolvent.⁴

This surge is driven by three primary factors:

1. Regulatory Rigor: The implementation of stricter loan classification guidelines aligned with international best practices (Basel III standards) has forced banks to recognize loans as “bad” that were previously hidden under rescheduling schemes or lax reporting.⁶
2. Legacy Fraud: A significant portion of these loans are attributed to large-scale fraud and irregularities committed by politically connected business groups during the previous regime, particularly in state-owned and certain Shariah-based banks.⁶
3. Economic Distress: The economic slowdown and energy crisis have genuinely impaired the repayment capacity of legitimate businesses, particularly in the textile and SME sectors.⁷

The implications of a 30% NPL ratio are catastrophic. It traps capital that should be circulating in the economy, forcing banks to set aside massive provisions from their operating profits. This erodes their capital adequacy and destroys their ability to lend. The central bank has responded with the “Prompt Corrective Action” (PCA) framework, effective March 31, 2025, which mandates strict penalties for banks failing to meet capital and governance thresholds, including potential mergers or liquidation.⁸

2.2 The Liquidity Crunch and Deposit Flight

In FY25, the banking sector experienced a severe liquidity crisis. This was not merely a function of tight monetary policy but also a result of a breakdown in trust. Widespread scams in Shariah-based banks led to a wave of deposit withdrawals as savers sought safety in larger, more stable banks or government savings instruments.⁶ This “flight to safety” drained liquidity from the interbank market, forcing the central bank to intervene with liquidity support measures, although the discontinuation of the 28-day repo facility kept conditions tight.⁶

For the entrepreneur, this liquidity crunch means that even if a project is viable, the bank simply may not have the funds to lend. Banks are hoarding cash to meet regulatory requirements and handle potential deposit shocks, rather than deploying it into the real economy.⁵

2.3 The “Crowding Out” Effect: Fiscal Dominance

Perhaps the most debilitating factor for the private sector is the government’s voracious appetite for bank credit. Facing a revenue shortfall—tax collection fell by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter of FY25—the government has resorted to heavy borrowing from the banking system to finance its fiscal deficit and service existing debt.⁹

In FY25, the government exceeded its annual bank borrowing target of BDT 99,000 crore well before the fiscal year concluded.¹¹ For FY26, the target has been set even higher at BDT 1.04 trillion.¹² This massive public sector borrowing “crowds out” private investment. Banks, risk-averse in the current climate, prefer to lend to the government via Treasury bills and bonds, which offer high, risk-free yields, rather than lending to risky SMEs or manufacturers.¹³ Consequently, private sector credit growth plummeted to a historic low of 6.49% in June 2025, far below the central bank’s target of 9.8%.⁵ This statistic serves as the starkest evidence of the capital drought facing entrepreneurs.

2.4 Digital Banking: A Deferred Promise

Amidst the gloom of traditional banking, the digital banking sector promised a revolution. The central bank granted licenses to entities like Nagad Digital Bank PLC and Kori Digital Bank, aiming to foster financial inclusion and provide collateral-free loans to the “missing middle”.¹⁴ Nagad, leveraging its massive mobile financial service user base, planned to introduce AI-driven credit scoring to lend to small businesses and farmers.¹⁶

However, this sector has also faced headwinds. The ownership structures of some applicants, including Kori Digital Bank, came under intense scrutiny regarding money laundering allegations and ties to shell companies in the US and Singapore.¹⁷ While Nagad received its final license, the operational rollout has been scrutinized by the interim government to ensuring strict compliance. Thus, while digital banks hold immense potential to democratize finance, their impact in 2025 remains constrained by regulatory caution and the broader cleanup of the financial system.

3. The Entrepreneur’s Operational Gauntlet

For the Bangladeshi entrepreneur in 2025, obtaining finance is only the first hurdle. The operational environment is characterized by severe infrastructure bottlenecks that erode profitability and increase the risk profile of business ventures.

3.1 The Energy Crisis: A Production Paralysis

The most immediate threat to industrial viability is the acute shortage of natural gas. The industrial sector, which generates over 35% of GDP, relies heavily on gas for power generation and as a raw material.¹⁸ In 2024–2025, gas shortages forced production in key sectors like textiles, steel, and fertilizer to drop by 30–50%.¹⁸

This crisis persists despite a staggering 178% hike in gas prices in the 2023-24 financial year.¹⁸ Entrepreneurs are caught in a double bind: they are paying record-high prices for energy that is unreliable. Factories are often forced to run at partial capacity or shut down during peak hours. This unreliability destroys the feasibility of industrial loans; a bank cannot accurately project the cash flow of a factory that may not have fuel to operate. The reliance on expensive imported LNG exposes the sector to global price volatility, further destabilizing business planning.²⁰

3.2 Logistics and Supply Chain Disruption

The efficiency of trade logistics, measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), has deteriorated. The Chittagong Port, the nation’s primary maritime gateway, has been plagued by severe congestion. Dwell times for import containers bound for Dhaka ICD surged to 20–23 days in mid-2025 ²¹, while vessel waiting times increased due to equipment shortages and operational inefficiencies.²²

For the Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector, which operates on tight lead times, these delays are disastrous. Delays often force exporters to ship goods via air freight to meet deadlines, a cost that is significantly higher than sea freight and wipes out profit margins.²³ Furthermore, global shipping delays in 2025, affecting 96% of major container terminals worldwide, have compounded local inefficiencies.²² The entrepreneur is thus faced with higher working capital requirements to maintain inventory buffers, precisely at a time when working capital finance is most expensive and scarce.

3.3 The High Cost of Capital

With inflation necessitating high policy rates and the government setting a high floor on yields through savings instruments, the cost of borrowing for the private sector has skyrocketed.

Borrower Category	Interest Rate Range (2025)	Market Conditions
Large Corporate (RMG)	13.75% – 15.75%	Rates are high, but access is relatively better than SMEs. 24
SME (Manufacturing)	14.25% – 16.00%	High risk premium applied. Collateral requirements are stringent. 24
Women Entrepreneurs	5.00% – 10.00%	Subsidized under refinancing schemes, but bureaucratic hurdles limit access. 26
Microfinance/NGO	20.00%+ (Effective)	While stated rates may be lower, effective rates including fees are high.

Despite central bank refinancing schemes for women entrepreneurs offering rates as low as 5% ²⁶, the broader market rate for SMEs often exceeds 15%.²⁵ Banks cite high operational costs and risk premiums for these rates. When combined with double-digit inflation and energy disruptions, a 15% cost of capital renders many low-margin manufacturing businesses unviable.

4. The Investor’s Landscape: Yields, Risks, and Opportunities

While the entrepreneur struggles, the investor in 2025 faces a landscape rich with high-yield opportunities, provided they can navigate the volatility. The financial system has effectively tilted to favor the saver and the passive investor over the risk-taker.

4.1 Fixed Income: The “Golden Age” for Savers

The most dominant theme for investors in 2025 is the attractiveness of fixed-income instruments. The government’s desperate need for cash to fund its deficit has driven yields on Treasury bills and bonds to multi-year highs.

• Sanchaypatra (National Savings Certificates): To attract deposits and cool inflation, the government hiked interest rates on these instruments. The 5-year Bangladesh Sanchaypatra offers yields up to 11.28% on maturity, while the Pensioner Sanchaypatra offers up to 11.76%.²⁷ These rates are essentially risk-free and are significantly higher than the average deposit rates offered by commercial banks.
• Treasury Bonds: The yield curve for government securities has shifted upwards, reflecting the tight liquidity conditions. This has created a “crowding out” effect not just in credit, but in investment flows. Households and institutional investors are allocating capital to these sovereign instruments rather than the stock market or private equity, reinforcing the bank-centric and government-centric nature of the financial system.

4.2 The Capital Market: Correction and Reform

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has undergone a painful but necessary correction. The defining event of the period was the removal of the “floor price” mechanism by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

• The Floor Price Legacy: Introduced to prevent a market crash, floor prices kept valuations artificially high but froze liquidity, as no one was willing to buy at those prices.
• Post-Removal Dynamics: The removal of floor prices in early 2024 and throughout 2025 led to a sharp correction in indices. The DSEX benchmark index hovered around the 4,800–5,100 range in late 2025, down from previous highs.²⁹ While this caused paper losses for existing investors, it restored liquidity to the market. Turnover increased to BDT 7.90 billion in mid-2025, indicating that buyers were returning to the market at these lower, more realistic valuations.²⁹

BSEC Regulatory Activism: The BSEC has been hyper-active in attempting to stabilize the market and protect investors.

• Margin Loan Reforms: To manage leverage risk, the BSEC adjusted margin loan ratios (typically 1:0.5 or 1:0.8 depending on index levels) and enforced strict rules preventing margin lending for “Z-category” (junk/non-performing) stocks.³¹
• Taxation: The FY2025-26 budget introduced a 15% capital gains tax on individual investors for listed shares held for less than five years, marking a shift from the previous tax-free regime.³³ This policy aims to discourage short-term speculation and encourage long-term holding.

4.3 The Alternative Trading Board (ATB)

A bright spot for market development is the Alternative Trading Board (ATB). Designed for unlisted companies, open-ended mutual funds, and debt securities, the ATB provides a structured exit mechanism for early investors and price discovery for companies not ready for a main board IPO.³⁵ Instruments like the Runner Auto Sustainability Bond have listed on the ATB, broadening the menu of investable assets beyond traditional equities.³⁶ This platform is crucial for bridging the gap between the private and public markets.

5. The Venture Capital and Startup Ecosystem

The startup ecosystem in Bangladesh presents a paradox of headline success masking underlying fragility. While aggregate funding figures appear robust, they are skewed by isolated large deals, leaving the broader ecosystem in a funding drought.

5.1 The Funding Mirage

Data from H1 2025 shows a dramatic 12-fold surge in startup funding to $119.9 million.³⁷ However, a closer look reveals that over 90% of this capital came from a single $110 million merger and acquisition (M&A) deal between the B2B commerce platform ShopUp and the Saudi-based Sary.³⁷

If this outlier is removed, the ecosystem raised less than $10 million in the first half of the year. This indicates a severe “funding winter” for early-stage startups (Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A).³⁷ Investors have become highly selective, prioritizing unit economics and profitability over growth-at-all-costs metrics. The funding gap for Bangladeshi startups is estimated at a staggering $12 billion, highlighting the massive disconnect between entrepreneurial ambition and available risk capital.³⁸

5.2 Key Players and Trends

Despite the slowdown, key institutional players remain active.

• Startup Bangladesh Limited: The government-backed venture capital firm continues to be a cornerstone investor, focusing on sectors like fintech, healthtech, and education. It plays a critical role in de-risking investments for private partners.³⁹
• Angel Networks: The Bangladesh Angels Network (BAN) remains a vital source of early-stage capital, organizing showcases to connect founders with local and international investors. Recent investments include startups like Shuttle and Zantrik, though deal velocity has slowed compared to previous years.⁴⁰

The narrative for 2025 is one of consolidation. Weak startups are folding or merging, while those with strong fundamentals are surviving on leaner budgets. The “growth equity” stage remains the most challenging, as foreign VC funds have pulled back from frontier markets due to global macroeconomic uncertainty.

6. Fiscal Policy Impacts (FY2025-26)

The National Budget for FY2025-26 introduced several fiscal measures that directly impact the risk-reward calculus for both investors and entrepreneurs.

6.1 Taxation on Capital Gains and Dividends

The introduction of a 15% tax on capital gains for individual investors is a watershed moment.³⁴ Previously, capital gains from listed shares were tax-exempt for individuals, a policy intended to popularize the stock market. The removal of this exemption signals the government’s desperate need for revenue and a shift towards taxing wealth. While this may dampen short-term trading volumes, it aligns the tax treatment of equities with other asset classes.

6.2 Corporate Tax Rationalization

To encourage companies to list on the stock exchange, the government widened the corporate tax rate gap. Listed companies now pay 20–22.5%, while non-listed companies pay 27.5%.⁴² This 5-7.5% differential is a strong fiscal incentive for entrepreneurs to take their companies public. Additionally, the corporate tax rate for merchant banks was reduced from 37.5% to 27.5% to support the intermediaries who facilitate these listings.⁴²

7. Sectoral Opportunities and Risks

7.1 Ready-Made Garments (RMG) & Textiles

The RMG sector remains the engine of the economy but is sputtering under the weight of gas shortages and labor unrest. For investors, listed textile companies currently appear undervalued due to the market correction, but the operational risks are high. For entrepreneurs, the focus is on survival and efficiency—investing in energy-efficient machinery (Green Factories) to mitigate energy costs.⁴⁴

7.2 Healthcare: The Defensive Growth Star

Healthcare has emerged as a prime sector for investment. With a market projected to reach $23 billion by 2033, driven by a growing middle class and rising health awareness, the sector offers defensive growth.⁴⁵ Opportunities exist in hospitals, diagnostics, and medical device manufacturing (import substitution). The sector is less sensitive to economic cycles, making it attractive for private equity.⁴⁶

7.3 ICT and Freelancing

The ICT sector continues to show promise, particularly in B2B software and freelancing. Bangladesh is a major global hub for online labor, and the government’s tax exemptions for IT-enabled services (ITES) remain in place.⁴⁷ For investors, this sector offers exposure to foreign currency earnings, providing a hedge against the depreciation of the Taka.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The banking and finance landscape of Bangladesh in 2025 is a study in contrasts. The financial system is currently optimized for fiscal survival and safe-haven investing. High government borrowing has created a lucrative market for risk-free assets, benefiting the passive investor but crowding out the private credit essential for economic expansion. The banking sector is undergoing a painful but necessary cleansing of its balance sheets, a process that restricts liquidity in the near term but promises stability in the long run.

For the entrepreneur, the path forward is arduous. Survival requires navigating a trifecta of challenges: a credit crunch, an energy crisis, and logistical bottlenecks. Success will depend on operational resilience, the ability to tap into alternative financing (such as the ATB or private equity), and a pivot towards sectors with structural tailwinds like healthcare and technology.

Looking ahead to 2026, the resolution of the NPL crisis and the stabilization of the political environment are the prerequisites for a rebound in private investment. If the government can successfully implement its revenue reforms and reduce its reliance on bank borrowing, the “crowding out” effect may recede, allowing the banking sector to once again fuel the entrepreneurial engine of Bangladesh. Until then, cash remains king for the investor, while resilience remains the currency of the entrepreneur.

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